{"id":5914,"date":"2024-09-27T11:33:59","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T03:33:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.syncicap.com\/?p=5914"},"modified":"2024-10-03T11:37:34","modified_gmt":"2024-10-03T03:37:34","slug":"news-template-with-pdf-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.syncicap.com\/zh-hans\/news-template-with-pdf-5\/","title":{"rendered":"[FRENCH] NEWSFLASH : Analyse du rebond spectaculaire des actions chinoises"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"5914\" class=\"elementor elementor-5914\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2d521e06 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"2d521e06\" data-element_type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b34923b e-con-full e-flex elementor-invisible e-con e-child\" data-id=\"b34923b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;,&quot;animation&quot;:&quot;fadeInUp&quot;,&quot;animation_delay&quot;:500}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fdac466 exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fdac466\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p id=\"ember382\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Analyse du rebond spectaculaire des actions chinoises <\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember383\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Les principaux indices des actions chinoises viennent de regagner de 15 \u00e0 20% depuis mi-septembre.<\/p><p id=\"ember385\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Les faits\u00a0:<\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember386\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Les statistiques \u00e9conomiques chinoises publi\u00e9es cet \u00e9t\u00e9 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s d\u00e9cevantes, dans pratiquement tous les domaines\u00a0: les prix de l\u2019immobilier continuent \u00e0 baisser, la consommation des m\u00e9nages reste tr\u00e8s faible, le ch\u00f4mage des jeunes est \u00e9lev\u00e9, l\u2019investissement industriel ralentit et m\u00eame les exportations, satisfaisantes jusqu\u2019alors, sont sous la menace de sanctions commerciales des Etats-Unis (surtout dans le contexte \u00e9lectoral am\u00e9ricain) et aussi de l\u2019Europe\u2026<\/p><p id=\"ember387\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Dans ces conditions, l\u2019objectif de 5% de croissance pour cette ann\u00e9e, r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 par le Pr\u00e9sident Xi r\u00e9cemment, devenait de plus en plus improbable.<\/p><p id=\"ember388\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Pire, le pays se situe dans une sorte de spirale d\u00e9flationniste inextricable sans soutien massif.<\/p><p id=\"ember389\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Tr\u00e8s sch\u00e9matiquement, la logique d\u00e9flationniste chinoise est la suivante\u00a0: la chute de l\u2019immobilier p\u00e8se sur la confiance des m\u00e9nages qui ne consomment pas assez alors que l\u2019industrie est en surcapacit\u00e9 et que les exportations du pays sont limit\u00e9es par le contexte g\u00e9opolitique \u2026 (La Chine produit 30% des biens industriels mondiaux mais n\u2019en consomme que 15%&#8230;)<\/p><p id=\"ember390\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Il semble donc que cette fois-ci, le pouvoir a vraiment pris conscience de la gravit\u00e9 de la situation et une action d\u2019envergure a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cid\u00e9e.<\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember391\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Le plan de relance est ambitieux et il couvre plusieurs domaines simultan\u00e9ment\u00a0: des mesures mon\u00e9taires, budg\u00e9taires, financi\u00e8res et aussi de soutien au secteur bancaire.<\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember393\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, voici les principales d\u00e9cisions\u00a0:<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>Baisse des taux (taux \u00e0 un an abaiss\u00e9 de 30 bp \u00e0 2%)<\/li><li>Baisse du taux de r\u00e9serve obligatoire des banques de 50 bp (qui passe \u00e0 6.6%)<\/li><li>Recapitalisation des grandes banques pour un montant de l\u2019ordre de 140 Mds de USD<\/li><li>Assouplissement des conditions d\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 l\u2019immobilier, avec une baisse de l\u2019apport initial demand\u00e9 qui passe de 25% \u00e0 15% pour les seconds biens<\/li><li>Baisse des taux des \u00ab\u00a0mortgages\u00a0\u00bb existants de 50 bp<\/li><li>Financement public accru des banques dans leur programmes d\u2019achat de stocks immobiliers existants invendus afin de r\u00e9duire l\u2019exc\u00e8s d\u2019offre<\/li><li>Mise en place de transferts directs aux m\u00e9nages pour stimuler la consommation<\/li><li>Possibilit\u00e9 pour les entreprises financi\u00e8res de placer des titres boursiers en collat\u00e9ral<\/li><li>Assouplissement des r\u00e8gles de rachats d\u2019actions<\/li><li>R\u00e9flexions sur la cr\u00e9ation d\u2019un fonds de stabilisation boursier<\/li><\/ul><p id=\"ember396\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Strat\u00e9gie actions chinoises\u00a0:<\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember397\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\">Le rebond est puissant et, \u00e0 notre avis, n\u2019est pas termin\u00e9 pour les raisons suivantes\u00a0:<\/p><ul><li>Les investisseurs, tant domestiques qu\u2019internationaux, \u00e9taient absents ou largement sous-pond\u00e9r\u00e9s sur ce march\u00e9. Ils n\u2019ont donc pas profit\u00e9 de ce rebond et vont donc l\u2019alimenter en couvrant leurs positions \u00ab\u00a0short\u00a0\u00bb<\/li><li>Le plan est au-del\u00e0 des attentes<\/li><li>Les valorisations restent tr\u00e8s raisonnables avec un PER 2024 global de l\u2019ordre de 11 pour l\u2019indice MSI China<\/li><li>En relatif des autres march\u00e9s occidentaux, plus matures et proches des plus hauts historiques (comme les actions US), les actions chinoises retrouvent de l\u2019attrait dans cette nouvelle configuration<\/li><\/ul><p id=\"ember400\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, il nous semble que le rebond actuel n\u2019est pas termin\u00e9 et un potentiel suppl\u00e9mentaire de l\u2019ordre de 15% \u00e0 20% nous parait possible.<\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember401\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Au-del\u00e0, il conviendra d\u2019analyser l\u2019\u00e9volution de la gouvernance g\u00e9n\u00e9rale du pays afin de comprendre si la confiance (des m\u00e9nages et surtout des entrepreneurs) est restaur\u00e9e.<\/strong><\/p><p id=\"ember402\" class=\"ember-view reader-text-block__paragraph\"><strong>Mais en attendant, le \u00ab\u00a0Beijing put\u00a0\u00bb semble fonctionner\u00a0!<\/strong><\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Link to Linkedin article:<\/p><p>https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/analyse-du-rebond-spectaculaire-des-actions-sxswc\/?trackingId=HEfyJMFiyVNLCd2eX1oGyw%3D%3D<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-035d302 elementor-align-center exad-sticky-section-no exad-glass-effect-no elementor-widget elementor-widget-embedpress_pdf\" data-id=\"035d302\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"embedpress_pdf.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t    <div class=\"embedpress-document-embed ep-doc-0e5035962de94561c637bac8cb6e49a8 ose-document emebedpress-unit-percent \" data-thememode=\"light\" 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